Brent drops below $100 as Democratic midterm gains lift hopes of an end to the Iran war

Reports put the Brent decline at between about 8.6% and more than 10%, taking prices to roughly $93-95 a barrel. Rabobank's Molly Schwartz noted that this was the first time Brent had traded below $100 since October 7. WTI was cited near $87 a barrel.

ING noted that ICE Brent closed the session 8.7% down, under $95, following the Democrats' victories in both chambers of Congress. Traders appear to be betting that political pressure on President Donald Trump will raise the odds of a diplomatic exit from the conflict, which would reduce the expected risk to Gulf supply. One report also referenced a Wall Street Journal article suggesting a resolution looks likely, though its details were not available.

Analysts were cautious about the scale of the move. ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said the speed of the fall looks overdone, pointing to still-tight US product inventories, while acknowledging softer fundamentals and weakening timespreads. Rabobank said the election outcome was largely priced in and that a US pivot away from Iran would not guarantee lower prices, because Iran's influence over Persian Gulf flows and higher Gulf security costs could keep supply risk elevated.

Most source texts were summaries only, so the exact timing of the move within the session and the full details of any diplomatic steps are not confirmed.