Fed holds rate at 3.75-4% as two officials push for another hike

The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75-4%, pausing after a September hike. The committee voted 10-2 to hold, and both dissenters preferred another 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains too high and did not commit to a move in December.

Market pricing leans toward tightening. Cointelegraph cited a 78% implied probability of a December hike, and CME FedWatch data referenced by Interfax also pointed to a high chance. Analysts named bond yields, the dollar and the coming inflation figures as the factors likely to steer bitcoin next.

Reactions across assets were uneven. US stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday. Crypto reports conflicted: some outlets described declines in BTC, ETH and XRP, while another said Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin rose and XRP fell. Gold was described as flat in one report and lower in another. Several items were only summaries, so the size of the moves is unclear.

If rates stay high for longer, yields and the dollar can firm, which tends to weigh on speculative and non-yielding assets. The next inflation release could strengthen or weaken the case for a December hike.